Market Update

Let’s take a look at the main markets we follow to see what the technical evidence suggests.

U.S. Stock Market

There is no question the U.S. stock market is still in uptrend on its daily and weekly chart. And as you know, I am not a fan of fighting the trend. Right now however, we begin to see some signs that a Short-Term top has been made. Last week the market made a top on good news (the market marked a top on Thursday when Facebook gapped up on good earnings). The sentiment is also extremely bullish and right now I see a small 5-wave down move from the last week’s top. So, we have a warning that the market might turned lower. But until we see a break below the 1962 Fibo pivot and 1950/45 chart support, the bulls are still in charge. But I want to prepare you that if we see a breakdown below these levels, the downside may accelerate. The reason for this is the Ending Diagonal pattern (from Oct 2013 low) that I discussed with you last week that if completed, may produce a big and violent move lower.

Gold

Gold is still in its sideways range that has been intact for more than a year now. The immediate focus is now lower but a move abv the small resistance at 1325 may change that. So, as long as below 1325 I am bearish and expect a downside resolution of the prolonged sideways consolidation between 1180 and 1390. A move abv 1325 will turn the immediate focus (the hourly chart) bullish and that may be a sign fo a bigger move higher as the gold stocks GDX ETF would likely break higher with such a move as well.

EUR/USD

The move down from this year’s top near 1.4000 is kind of slow, but the evidence is building that the market has started the final leg lower of the Diametric formation from the July 2008 top. If that’s the case, my long-term call for a decline twd 1.2870 and lower becomes prefered for the next few months. It would take a move abv 1.3700 to negate this bearish view…

Trade with the Trend!

Alexander
http://www.Trendrecognition.com

Disclaimer: The services provided by Trend Recognition Ltd are intended for informational and educational purposes only. At no time will Trend Recognition make specific recommendations for any specific person, and at no time may a reader, caller or viewer be justified in inferring that any such advice is intended. The service is not a recommendation to buy or sell securities or an offer to buy or sell securities. The publishers of Trend Recognition website are not brokers or registered investment advisors and are not acting in any way to influence the purchase or sale of any security and/or its derivatives. You should not rely solely on the information provided on this site in trading.

Triangle Pattern In Gold?

Today’s topic of my weekly analysis is on gold. Gold has recently traded sideways for several months between 1180 and 1430. For the past couple of weeks it declined sharply but is still within that range. So, let’s see if we can make any conclusions here.

The price pattern from the last week’s low at 1180 seems similar to the price action from the late 2011 top to early 2013. Back then gold traded sideways between 1520 and 1800 before it broke down in March 2013 and head sharply lower.

Now, you can see these similarities by yourself on the chart above. And the recent price action resembles a Triangle and if that’s correct, we may see one more rally attempt in the next month or so. But eventually I would expect a break down and a move twd 1000. Of course, we should also follow the market and act accordingly. if the prices move firmly abv 1400, then we will have an upside breakout, i.e. the Triangle will turn out to be a reversal one. In that case I would turn bullish.

What do you think? Please, share your opinion below.

Regards,

Trade with the trend!

Alexander
http://www.Trendrecognition.com

Disclaimer: The services provided by Trend Recognition Ltd are intended for informational and educational purposes only. At no time will Trend Recognition make specific recommendations for any specific person, and at no time may a reader, caller or viewer be justified in inferring that any such advice is intended. The service is not a recommendation to buy or sell securities or an offer to buy or sell securities. The publishers of Trend Recognition website are not brokers or registered investment advisors and are not acting in any way to influence the purchase or sale of any security and/or its derivatives. You should not rely solely on the information provided on this site in trading.

Uptrend In Commodities

I do not write about commodities very often, but now they deserve our attention. After spending 2-3 years in bear market, many commodities have risen sharply since the start ot this year and are now in new bull markets. The GCC stock – that is the EFT that tracks the commodity complex – is more than 10% up since the beginning of the year. Last month we saw big upmoves in many agricultural commodities as well as in gold and silver. Now, not all commodities are in bull market. Base metals fore example are still lagging… but the overall picture has turned bullish.

What are the implications of this new uptrend in commodities? First, it is a sign that the inflation may be picking up. But that’s not guaranteed as sometimes the hgher commodity prices are not accompanied by high inflation rates. Second, it is worth noting that usually commodities are stronger in the final stages of the bull market in stocks. But again, that’s not something that we can count on. I believe that we should examine each market seperately and try to estimate its own trend. So, the most important message is that commodities as a whole are now in bull market. Honestly, that is something I didn’t expect at the start of this year, but that is what we have now. And as always, the best approach in the market (in my opinion) is to follow the flow – and in this case it is up for the commodity markets as a whole.

As you know, I mainly focus on gold and silver as I personally do not trade the other commodity markets. And gold and silver are in critical junctures now. They are both in uptrends on their daily charts but have reached levels where they can find strong resistance on the weekly charts. I think that we should pay close attention to the trend in gold stocks ETF (GDX) as well. As long as it is in uptrend, that will be a supporting sign for gold and silver. If gold stocks reverse lower, than I suspect the rally in gold and silver may end as well.

Trade with the Trend!

Alexander
http://www.Trendrecognition.com

Disclaimer: The services provided by Trend Recognition Ltd are intended for informational and educational purposes only. At no time will Trend Recognition make specific recommendations for any specific person, and at no time may a reader, caller or viewer be justified in inferring that any such advice is intended. The service is not a recommendation to buy or sell securities or an offer to buy or sell securities. The publishers of Trend Recognition website are not brokers or registered investment advisors and are not acting in any way to influence the purchase or sale of any security and/or its derivatives. You should not rely solely on the information provided on this site in trading.

Equity And Gold Market Update

Happy new year!

I am back from a nice vacation in Florida where I had lots of fun with my family: we enjoyed several amusement parks (I tried every single ride!), fed birds, went to fantastic sandy beaches and swam with dolphins. It was a great time for me to re-charge for the new year. Hope you did something to re-charge in a way that you value. Here’s a picture of myself swimming with a dolphin in Discovery Cove: an experience I will not forget:

Now, the price action in the markets is very interesting. Gold has been up more than 3.5% so far this year. And I guess many people speculate this is the beginning of another bull market. I don’t think so. I have shared my bearish views on gold several times with you. Now you can go to FX Trader Magazine and read my latest article on Long-Term prospects of gold that has just been published. You can simply register and see my article – it is on page 54-56.

http://www.fxtradermagazine.com

As for the stock market, it is almost at its top and continues to look very strong. Yesterday I published my Medium-Term analysis on my web site (this section is free for everyone – just go to: http://www.trendrecognition.com/us-stock-indices/medium-term-outlook). And I remain bullish. With such a strong uptrend it will be foolish to try to guess the top here. But I feel that the market may experience a strong pullback soon as the sentiment has gotten extremely bullish. So, do not be complacent and please, be prepared for everything. I’ve learnt that when we are prepared for all scenarios, we most likely will make money. When we are too confident in one scenario, it is easy to lose money if it doesn’t play out as expected.

Will talk again with you in a week. Until then, do not forget to always:

Trade with the Trend!

Alexander
http://www.Trendrecognition.com

Disclaimer: The services provided by Trend Recognition Ltd are intended for informational and educational purposes only. At no time will Trend Recognition make specific recommendations for any specific person, and at no time may a reader, caller or viewer be justified in inferring that any such advice is intended. The service is not a recommendation to buy or sell securities or an offer to buy or sell securities. The publishers of Trend Recognition website are not brokers or registered investment advisors and are not acting in any way to influence the purchase or sale of any security and/or its derivatives. You should not rely solely on the information provided on this site in trading.

Update On Gold And Stock Market

I am back from a nice vacation at the beach. That was my last vacation for the summer and I fully sharpened my saw. And as always, I am now ready to make my best to serve you in dealing with the voliatilities of the main financial markets.
Here’s a picture of me right on the sandy dunes:

A couple of weeks ago I talked with you about gold. Back then, I forecasted that the end of the rally from the late June’s low was coming. Since then gold has declined almost $100. And now it seems the larger-degree downtrend that started with the breakdown below 1525 level earlier this year has resumed. So, I expect to see a full test on the June’s low near 1180. If you didn’t read this analysis two weeks ago, here’s the link to it again:

http://www.trendrecognition.com/education/articles/222-is-gold-in-bear-or-bull-market-gold-update

What about the stock market? – Despite all fears with Syria, the U.S. stock market held nicely and then resumed its larger-degree uptrend. Today the market is called to open with a big gap higher amid an agreement between Russia and U.S. on Syria. Once again you can see how following the headlines is useless. There is always something to worry about on the market: first it was Egypt, then Cyprus, then the fiscal cliff, then Cyprus agian, now it is Syria. But the market has been in an uptrend and all this negative news has only brought short-lived dips lower. I am currently looking at 3320 level in Nasdaq 100 and 1773 level in S&P500 as my next upside targets. Of course one should always follow the makret message and be flexible if the market conditions change.

Will talk to you again soon…. Until then:

Trade with the Trend!

Alexander
Trendrecognition.com

Disclaimer: The services provided by Trend Recognition Ltd are intended for informational and educational purposes only. At no time will Trend Recognition make specific recommendations for any specific person, and at no time may a reader, caller or viewer be justified in inferring that any such advice is intended. The service is not a recommendation to buy or sell securities or an offer to buy or sell securities. The publishers of Trend Recognition website are not brokers or registered investment advisors and are not acting in any way to influence the purchase or sale of any security and/or its derivatives. You should not rely solely on the information provided on this site in trading.

Is Gold In Bear Or Bull Market ? (gold update)

Hello everyone,

Since I have not talked about gold for sometime, I’ve decided to write an article about its Medium-Term and Short-Term prospects. You can find on the link below: it discusses the trending conditions and what are the key levels that we should pay attention to.

http://www.trendrecognition.com/education/articles/222-is-gold-in-bear-or-bull-market-gold-update

I am travelling at the end of this week and early next week for a short vacation at the beach. So, I will catch up with you in a couple of weeks. I hope you enjoy the last days of the summer.

Trade with the Trend!

Alexander
Trendrecognition.com

Disclaimer: The services provided by Trend Recognition Ltd are intended for informational and educational purposes only. At no time will Trend Recognition make specific recommendations for any specific person, and at no time may a reader, caller or viewer be justified in inferring that any such advice is intended. The service is not a recommendation to buy or sell securities or an offer to buy or sell securities. The publishers of Trend Recognition website are not brokers or registered investment advisors and are not acting in any way to influence the purchase or sale of any security and/or its derivatives. You should not rely solely on the information provided on this site in trading.