Upside Breakout In USD/JPY Market

My main topic today is the uptrend in USD/JPY market. But first, just to point out how some of my previous calls are fairing. Gold is now breaking lower again and I still see it at $1000 in early 2014. Stock market indices are rallying strongly and I see no signs of topping formations here. So, these major trends in these two markets (gold and U.S. equities) that have been intact for entire 2013, are still under way.

Now, let me say a few words about the USD/JPY market as this is one of the market where I have made big gains this year. After the huge rally to May 2013 top, the market spent several months (almost 6 months) trading sideways in a textbook Contracting Triangle. And a couple of weeks ago it broke higher. So I have strong reasons to believe that larger-degree uptrend from Sept 2012 low has resumed. If correct, gains twd the 108.21 Fibonacci level are likely in the 1st quarter of 2014. Only a move below 100.00 will negate this bullish outlook.
Here’s the chart from this week’s Short-Term update (reserved for subscribers only) with my wave labelling:

If you’d like to regularly get my weekly and daily analysis for major forex pairs as well as the U.S. stock indices, please take a look at the following page and see if one of the subscription plans may work for you.

http://trendrecognition.com/subscription

Trade with the Trend!

Alexander
http://www.Trendrecognition.com

Disclaimer: The services provided by Trend Recognition Ltd are intended for informational and educational purposes only. At no time will Trend Recognition make specific recommendations for any specific person, and at no time may a reader, caller or viewer be justified in inferring that any such advice is intended. The service is not a recommendation to buy or sell securities or an offer to buy or sell securities. The publishers of Trend Recognition website are not brokers or registered investment advisors and are not acting in any way to influence the purchase or sale of any security and/or its derivatives. You should not rely solely on the information provided on this site in trading.

Quick Recap of All Markets

Let’s do a quick re-cap of all markets that we regularly follow.

First, the U.S. stock market – the decline from the May’s top is clearly corrective but that does not mean it is over at last week’s low. Most likely this market will continue its decline in the next couple of months but with big swings up and down. that means the market can easily fool us at one time that is breaking down only to reverse higher, and in other times – to break out only to fail and reverse lower. Such markets are very difficult to trade and usually it is best to stay out duing such periods. Or even best, to trade individual stocks based on their own price patterns. Right now I see more stocks with bullish patterns than stocks with bearish patterns.

In the FOREX market, EUR has likely entered a broad sideways range for the summer – between roughly 1.29 and 1.35. The most exciting market is the one in GBP/USD and my subscribers know that I have managed to capture some big declines recently here. So, my main focus will remain on this market.
USD/JPY is rallying from its June’s low but the rally will likely encounter resistance below the May’s top. I suspect this market has entered into a broad sideways range that is going to last for several months. If correct, we will soon see another big move lower – toward 93.00 and eventually twd 87.40 Fibo level.

And finally, gold market. Gold has been in a vicious bear market since it broke below 1525 level in early spring. Now, it may bottom soon and bounce sharply for several weeks or even several months. But I have no doubt that the Long-Term trend is now down and eventually we will see prices below $1000 per ounce.

That’s all for today.  I will catch up with you again next week. Until then:

Trade with the Trend!

Alexander
Trendrecognition.com

Disclaimer: The services provided by Trend Recognition Ltd are intended for informational and educational purposes only. At no time will Trend Recognition make specific recommendations for any specific person, and at no time may a reader, caller or viewer be justified in inferring that any such advice is intended. The service is not a recommendation to buy or sell securities or an offer to buy or sell securities. The publishers of Trend Recognition website are not brokers or registered investment advisors and are not acting in any way to influence the purchase or sale of any security and/or its derivatives. You should not rely solely on the information provided on this site in trading.

Once Again The Uptrend In S&P500 Survived

Last week it was looking that the a Short-Term top in S&P500 was finally in. The prices declined to the rising trendline from the November 2012 low and 50-day moving average but then the market rallied strongly from there. That way the decline from the May’s top remained clearly corrective and was likely over at last week’s bottom. So, until the 1595 level is taken out, we once again need to give our preference to the long side. As I’ve said many times to you, it is not worth fighting the primary trend. When you fight the trend, you can’t make money.

On the currency front, it seems USD/JPY has finally started a correction of the big upmove from the September 2012 low. The market is now in a counter-trend bounce from last week’s low at 95.00, but most likely this bounce will not bring new highs for the year here.

And finally, a quick note about last week’s discussion on crude oil. As you remember I was looking for a turn lower. But the market recovered above the 94.00 level and that made the picture neutral again. And should it move above 97.50/98.0 level, this market will become quite bullish. Bottomline, I was wrong. I am not happy with being wrong, but it is better to acknowledge it then to fight the market.

There will be no post next week as I am travelling on a short vacation. Will talk to you in the last week of June again. In the meantime, don’t forget to:

Trade with the Trend!

Alexander
Trendrecognition.com

Disclaimer: The services provided by Trend Recognition Ltd are intended for informational and educational purposes only. At no time will Trend Recognition make specific recommendations for any specific person, and at no time may a reader, caller or viewer be justified in inferring that any such advice is intended. The service is not a recommendation to buy or sell securities or an offer to buy or sell securities. The publishers of Trend Recognition website are not brokers or registered investment advisors and are not acting in any way to influence the purchase or sale of any security and/or its derivatives. You should not rely solely on the information provided on this site in trading.

 

 

A Look At The Major Forex Markets

I have not discussed the forex market with you for quite some time, so let’s take a brief look at the major trends there.

First, EUR/USD is still in primary uptrend from July 2012 low. For the past couple of weeks it has tried to built a base near 1.2995 level. In my opinion we need a break abv 1.3195 Fibonacci level to have a signal that the next big move up is under way. Here’s the chart from my latest Short-Term update :

http://www.trendrecognition.com/images/stories/2013/forex2013/eurusd_st_20130310.gif

GBP/USD market broke below 1.5260 key Fibonacci and chart support a few weeks ago and since then it has been under strong pressure. With that break down we have a confirmation that the larger degree downtrend from the year 2008 top has likely resumed. If correct, ultimately we should go below 1.35!

And finally, USD/JPY… This market remains in strong uptrend on its daily chart. Last week it broke out above a small chart consolidation below 94.50 and reached new high for the bull market from September 2012 low. The next Fibonacci level to watch here is 96.70 ahead of 98.90. See the latest Short-Term (daily) chart:

http://www.trendrecognition.com/images/stories/2013/forex2013/usdjpy_st_20130310.gif

Last week I turned bullish at 93.40 here and this position has moved nicely since then. Everyone takes their own decisions according to their approach to the market, but I think you can’t allow to miss the weekly analysis that I make (they combine a wave analysis using the Neely method as well as an objective trend definition apporach). If you want to read these updates every week, choose a subscription plan from the ones below:

http://www.trendrecognition.com/subscription

Until next time:

Trade with the Trend!

Alexander
Trendrecognition.com

Disclaimer: The services provided by Trend Recognition Ltd are intended for informational and educational purposes only. At no time will Trend Recognition make specific recommendations for any specific person, and at no time may a reader, caller or viewer be justified in inferring that any such advice is intended. The service is not a recommendation to buy or sell securities or an offer to buy or sell securities. The publishers of Trend Recognition website are not brokers or registered investment advisors and are not acting in any way to influence the purchase or sale of any security and/or its derivatives. You should not rely solely on the information provided on this site in trading.

Forex Market Trend Analysis – February 2013

I think this video will be useful to all of you that are not yet subscribers to my forex updates as I reveal some of my thoughts about what’s going on on these markets and what I think is the best way to trade them.

Plus, I have not made videos like that for quite some time. So, I felt it was time for one.

Trade with the Trend!

Alexander
Trendrecognition.com

Disclaimer: The services provided by Trend Recognition Ltd are intended for informational and educational purposes only. At no time will Trend Recognition make specific recommendations for any specific person, and at no time may a reader, caller or viewer be justified in inferring that any such advice is intended. The service is not a recommendation to buy or sell securities or an offer to buy or sell securities. The publishers of Trend Recognition website are not brokers or registered investment advisors and are not acting in any way to influence the purchase or sale of any security and/or its derivatives. You should not rely solely on the information provided on this site in trading.

What’s Ahead For U.S. Dollar?

The U.S. dollar has fallen for the past week or so against almost all major currencies. However, the Short-Term and Medium-Term outlooks are quite different in different markets. For example, the U.S. dollar is currently weak against EUR and GBP and the daily charts suggest further weakness in the next couple of weeks. However, one should always keep in mind the larger-degree trend. Within that larger trend, GBP/USD is likely in wave (E) of a Triangle that strated back in early 2009. If that’s the case, the current rally of the British pound may be short-lived and will likely be followed by a huge move down for the cable. If you have forgotten my weekly chart of GBP/USD, here’s the scenario I am looking for:

http://www.trendrecognition.com/archives?view=ap&aid=4489

The weekly chart of EUR/USD is not that bearish right now, but it also suggests weakness going forward (which means dollar strenght). But the immediate trend (on hourly chart) is higher for the single currency.

And the most bullish for the U.S. dollar appears to be the weekly chart of USD/JPY. It seems to me USD has already bottommed in this market and a new long-term uptrend has already strated. Over the weekend I recorded a video about the Short-Term and Medium-Term prospects before this market. If you haven’t seen it already, I encourage you to take a look at it:

http://www.trendrecognition.com/education/video

If you take a look at the daily and weekly charts of AUD and CAD (vs USD), you will see a radically different picture. Those currencies continue to be in strong uptrend and as of now I see no signs that these uptrends are near completion.

As usual, I will focus my attention on each individual market and as soon as I see a compelling opportunity, I will write about it in my weekly and daily comments on my web site.

Best to your trading,

Alexander

Disclaimer: The services provided by Trend Recognition Ltd are intended for informational and educational purposes only. At no time will Trend Recognition make specific recommendations for any specific person, and at no time may a reader, caller or viewer be justified in inferring that any such advice is intended. The service is not a recommendation to buy or sell securities or an offer to buy or sell securities. The publishers of Trend Recognition website are not brokers or registered investment advisors and are not acting in any way to influence the purchase or sale of any security and/or its derivatives. You should not rely solely on the information provided on this site in trading. See the full disclaimer here.

Dollar Getting Weaker Again?

Today I’d like to spend some time sharing my views on the currency market with you. At the end of last year USD was stronger (against EUR, GBP, AUD, CAD, etc) but for the past few weeks it has been under pressure again. EUR bottommed out a couple of weeks ago and has advanced since then. And If you have followed our work for some time, you know that I do not buy the idea that euro will collapse this year. Quite the opposite, I expected EUR to go higher. If you have not seen my Long-Term forecast for main financial markets this year, you can read it here:
http://www.trendrecognition.com/lt-forecast

And this weekend I updated the weekly chart of EUR/USD and my confidence has increased that EUR has likely bottommed out. You can see my analysis and chart here:
http://www.trendrecognition.com/archives?view=ap&aid=4345

And finally, as I write this, USD has broken below the 76.50 support vs. JPY. This level has held the downside for more than 3 months. So this break may be important.

Bottomline is, I expect weak dollar in the next few months. I am aware there are some deflationary forces (that almost noone focuses on) which will likely bring huge dollar appreciation in the future, but right now the trend is likely to be down for the dollar.

See you next week.

Best Regards,

Alexander

Disclaimer: The services provided by Trend Recognition Ltd are intended for informational and educational purposes only. At no time will Trend Recognition make specific recommendations for any specific person, and at no time may a reader, caller or viewer be justified in inferring that any such advice is intended. The service is not a recommendation to buy or sell securities or an offer to buy or sell securities. The publishers of Trend Recognition website are not brokers or registered investment advisors and are not acting in any way to influence the purchase or sale of any security and/or its derivatives. You should not rely solely on the information provided on this site in trading. See the full disclaimer here.